SpaceX S-1 (sec.gov)

Article summary

The article discusses SpaceX's S-1 filing, which includes a stated Total Addressable Market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion. The breakdown of this number is $370B for Space, $1.6T for Connectivity, and $26.5T for AI. SpaceX's financials show a revenue of $18.7B in 2025, with an operating loss of $2.6B and a net loss of $4.9B. The company's Starlink segment appears to be a significant contributor to its revenue, with $11.4B in revenue and $4.4B in operating income.

Main themes

• SpaceX valuation
• S-1 filing
• Financials and losses
• Starlink business model
• Market irrationality
• Index funds and insider selling

What commenters say

• The stated TAM of $28.5 trillion is unrealistic and overly inflated, with the AI number being particularly questionable.
• SpaceX's financials are concerning, with significant operating and net losses, despite Starlink being a cash-generating segment.
• The company's valuation is expected to be high, potentially over $1 trillion, which some commenters believe is unjustified given the financials.
• The use of EBITDA for Starlink is misleading, as it does not account for the depreciation of satellites, which have a limited lifespan.
• Some commenters believe that the market will eventually correct and the valuation will drop to a more reasonable level, while others think it can stay high due to market irrationality.
• The inclusion of SpaceX in index funds and the potential for insider selling after the lockout period expires could impact the stock price.
• The comparison to other companies, such as Rocketlab, suggests that a high valuation for SpaceX is possible, but others argue that the financials do not justify it.
• The Starlink business model, including the cost of satellite dishes and the pricing strategy, is a subject of debate among commenters.