Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets (github.com)

Article summary

A Polymarket bot has been created that automatically buys 'No' on non-sports markets, with the goal of exploiting the tendency for most markets to resolve as 'No'. The bot is designed for entertainment purposes only and is not intended for serious investment. It uses a configurable ceiling and checks for new markets buying closer to 0.5. The bot's strategy is based on the observation that 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as 'No'.

Main themes

• Polymarket bot
• Prediction markets
• Gambling and risk
• Market manipulation
• Black swan events
• Investment strategy

What commenters say

• The bot's strategy may not be effective due to uneven payouts and the potential for market manipulation.
• Some people enjoy participating in prediction markets for entertainment purposes, even if they may not be profitable.
• The existence of prediction markets can influence people's perceptions of likelihood and potentially lead to overestimation of certain events.
• The bot's approach may be vulnerable to flooding the market with implausible bets, which could deprive it of any price advantage.
• Prediction markets like Polymarket can be seen as a form of unregulated gambling, with the house always winning in the end.
• Some argue that participating in prediction markets can provide a way to gauge the thoughts and intentions of powerful individuals or groups.
• Others believe that the potential risks and downsides of prediction markets, including the impact on the outside world, outweigh any potential benefits.
• The strategy of buying 'No' on non-sports markets may not be effective in the long term, as the market may adapt and prices may become more accurate.