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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story (timesofisrael.com)

1606 points by defly · 122 days ago · 1055 comments on HN

Article summary

A journalist for The Times of Israel received death threats and harassment from individuals who had placed bets on the Polymarket prediction market, which had a significant amount of money wagered on whether Iran would strike Israel on a specific date. The journalist's report of a missile hitting an open area in Israel was seen as influencing the outcome of the bet, and the individuals demanded that the journalist change the report to say the missile was intercepted. The journalist refused to change the report, despite the threats and offers of compensation. The incident highlights the potential for manipulation and coercion in prediction markets.

Main themes

  • prediction markets
  • insider trading
  • manipulation
  • regulation
  • gambling
  • information discovery
  • market integrity

What commenters say

  • Some argue that prediction markets are inherently flawed due to the potential for insider trading and manipulation.
  • Others believe that prediction markets can be useful tools for information discovery, but require strong regulatory safeguards to prevent abuse.
  • The lack of regulation in prediction markets is seen as a major problem, allowing insiders to profit at the expense of others.
  • There is disagreement over whether the purpose of prediction markets is to accurately predict outcomes or simply to provide a platform for gambling.
  • Some commentators draw parallels between prediction markets and the stock market, arguing that similar regulations should apply.
  • Others argue that the stock market has stronger guardrails in place to prevent insider trading, and that prediction markets are more akin to legalized gambling.
  • The incident highlights the need for greater transparency and accountability in prediction markets to prevent manipulation and coercion.
  • There are differing opinions on the morality of trading on non-public information, with some arguing that it is acceptable as long as it is not obtained through illegal means.