news.volyx.in

American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis (kielinstitut.de)

787 points by 47282847 · 184 days ago · 783 comments on HN

Article summary

A recent analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost of 2025 tariffs, with foreign exporters absorbing only about 4% of the tariff burden. The study used shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $4 trillion and found near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices. As a result, US customs revenue surged by approximately $200 billion in 2025, which is essentially a tax paid by Americans. The analysis also found that trade volumes collapsed instead of export prices declining in response to tariff shocks.

Main themes

  • US trade policy
  • Tariff effects
  • International trade
  • Economic analysis
  • Global economy

What commenters say

  • The tariffs are an own goal for the US, as they primarily harm American consumers and importers, rather than foreign exporters.
  • The true intention behind the tariffs may have been to add a tax without explicitly calling it one, in order to generate revenue for other purposes.
  • Some argue that the tariffs are a form of protectionism that can help local industries compete with foreign ones, but others see it as a barrier to free trade.
  • The impact of tariffs on trade volumes and prices is complex and depends on various market dynamics, and their effects can be unequal and far-reaching.
  • The US trade policy has been criticized for being mercantilist and unpredictable, leading to lower business confidence and investment.
  • There is a debate about whether the tariffs are a tax or not, and the Supreme Court's decision on this matter could have significant implications.
  • Some argue that a healthy free trade system should have balanced trade, and that surplus nations like China or the EU are to blame for global imbalances.
  • The use of tariffs as a tool to reduce global imbalances is seen as crude and disruptive by some, while others argue that it can be an effective way to achieve this goal.