LLM Inevitabilism (tomrenner.com)

Article summary

The article discusses the concept of inevitabilism, where the future is presented as unavoidable, and how this framing can be used to limit discussion and choice. The author argues that this is happening with the development of Large Language Models (LLMs) and AI, with some people presenting their widespread adoption as inevitable. The author suggests that we should be careful not to let inevitabilism frame the argument and take away our choice. Instead, we should think about the future we want and fight for it.

Main themes

• inevitabilism
• LLMs and AI
• technological growth
• sustainability
• cost and profitability
• human augmentation vs replacement
• comparisons to past technologies
• organic growth vs top-down mandates
• hardware advancements and Moore's law

What commenters say

• Some commenters argue that the growth of LLMs is not hype, but a reality that is happening faster than any previous technology.
• Others disagree, suggesting that the current usage of LLMs is subsidized by venture capital and may not be sustainable in the long term.
• The cost and profitability of running LLMs is a topic of debate, with some arguing that they can be run profitably with ads, while others claim that the training costs are subsidized.
• There are differing opinions on whether LLMs will replace humans or augment their capabilities, with some seeing them as a threat and others as an opportunity.
• The comparison to the Segway is made, with some arguing that it was a hype that failed to deliver, while others see it as an example of a technology that was ahead of its time.
• Some commenters believe that the adoption of LLMs is being driven by top-down mandates, rather than organic growth.
• The issue of Moore's law and hardware advancements is raised, with some arguing that they are not leading to significant speedups for LLMs.