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Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase (cnbc.com)

520 points by ceejayoz · 392 days ago · 339 comments on HN

Article summary

The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, according to ADP, missing expectations of a 100,000 increase. This unexpected contraction in hiring may indicate that the economy is not as strong as investors believe. The ADP report has a spotty track record of predicting subsequent government jobs reports. The loss of jobs was primarily in service roles, particularly in professional and business services and health and education.

Main themes

  • Economic indicators
  • Job market trends
  • Data accuracy
  • Government reporting
  • Economic health metrics
  • Labor market analysis

What commenters say

  • The ADP report's discrepancy with the government jobs report may be due to differences in data sources and methodologies.
  • Some commenters believe that the government's economic data may be manipulated for political purposes.
  • The current methods of measuring economic health, such as the unemployment rate, are flawed and do not capture the full picture of the economy.
  • Others argue that the existing metrics, including the six different unemployment rates published by the BLS, are sufficient to understand the economy.
  • The revisions to the government's jobs reports are a normal part of the data collection process, rather than evidence of manipulation.
  • The use of certain economic metrics can be misleading and may not accurately reflect the state of the economy.
  • Better communication and understanding of the semantics of economic data are necessary to avoid misconceptions and criticisms.