Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator (filiph.github.io)

Article summary

The article introduces the Unsure Calculator, a tool for performing calculations with uncertain numbers. It allows users to input ranges of values and calculates the resulting range of possible outcomes. The calculator uses a Monte Carlo method and assumes a normal distribution for the input ranges. The author provides examples of how the calculator can be used for everyday calculations, such as estimating the viability of a business idea or the return on investment of a marketing campaign.

Main themes

• Uncertainty calculation
• Probabilistic reasoning
• Monte Carlo method
• Statistical intuition
• Calculator tool
• Practical applications

What commenters say

• The calculator is a useful tool for developing statistical intuition and performing back-of-a-napkin calculations.
• The default assumption of a normal distribution for input ranges may not always be accurate, and allowing users to specify different distributions could be beneficial.
• The calculator's use of the Monte Carlo method can be slow and may not be suitable for all types of calculations.
• The tool has limitations, such as not being able to handle more complex probability distributions, but it can still be a valuable resource for everyday calculations.
• Some users have created their own versions of the calculator, such as a Python script, to improve performance or add features.
• The calculator's notation and approach can be seen as similar to other tools, such as Guesstimate or Squiggle, but with its own unique features and limitations.
• The calculator's ability to handle uncertainty can be useful in a variety of fields, including business, physics, and engineering.
• Alternative approaches, such as fuzzy numbers or interval arithmetic, may be more suitable for certain types of calculations or provide stronger mathematical guarantees.