news.volyx.in

10 years of whatever this has been (apenwarr.ca)

480 points by zdw · 1768 days ago · 704 comments on HN

Article summary

The article reflects on the author's 2011 prediction that bitcoin would fail, and while many of the author's concerns about bitcoin's technical and social issues have proven correct, bitcoin has still not failed in the classical sense. The author attributes bitcoin's survival to the fact that people really want it to succeed, despite its flaws. The article also draws a comparison between the blockchain phenomenon and the XML fad of the early 2000s, suggesting that while blockchains may not be useful in themselves, they may drive innovation in other areas. The author concludes that blockchains will likely take credit for any positive outcomes that arise from their adoption, even if they are not the primary cause.

Main themes

  • bitcoin and blockchain
  • technological flaws
  • social and economic implications
  • comparison to XML
  • innovation and progress
  • subjective value and usefulness

What commenters say

  • Bitcoin has not failed as a currency because it has increased in value and is still widely used, despite its technical and social flaws.
  • The usefulness of bitcoin is subjective and depends on individual perspectives and needs.
  • Blockchain technology has the potential to drive innovation in areas such as data storage and gaming, but its current implementations are often flawed or unnecessary.
  • The comparison between blockchain and XML is apt, as both have been driven by hype and have led to unnecessary complexity and waste.
  • The fact that bitcoin has not been shut down by governments or other external factors is a testament to its resilience and the dedication of its supporters.
  • The author's prediction that bitcoin would fail was based on flawed assumptions about what constitutes success or failure in a currency or technology.
  • The blockchain ecosystem is prone to scams, corruption, and other forms of exploitation, which undermines its potential benefits.
  • The idea that bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies could provide a safe haven from inflation or government manipulation is a key part of their appeal, but it is not clear whether they can actually deliver on this promise.